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Netflix might be on the move!
After William Blair analyst Ralph Schackart reiterated a note in which he said the media giant’s stock could rise 22% by the end of 2019, Netflix shares made some upward moves, gaining more than 3% on June 17.
But the gain is a somewhat irregular move as the stock has been stuck in a tight trading range, vacillating between levels without actually making much of a move in either direction, reports CNBC.
Netflix’s stock is up 31% on the year, but taking a closer look is important because it turns out that all of those gains happened in the first two weeks of 2019.
Since January, this has been Netflix’s tightest trading range on record, which could mean that after such a lengthy period of consolidation the stock could be primed for a big gain — or a big drop, according to research firm Bespoke.
But what do other experts say?
Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton tells CNBC that the stock could make a higher move, as the stock has reached oversold levels. Additionally, the media company is also trading above its 200-day moving average, which is a key indicator to show a stock’s trajectory. Stockton believes that indicator is a signal that the stock will continue on an upward trend.
Stockton said on Trading Nation, “There’s a couple of things working for the chart. It’s in a long-term uptrend. We do tend to look at ranges within long-term uptrends as continuation patterns, and of course strong support and a strong tape.”
However, in order for it to be on an uptrend and not continue to hover, Netflix’s stock has to break $387, the level that has provided overhead resistance in the past and which is about 11% above June 17th’s closing price of $351. If the stock can surpass $387, Stockton says the stock will likely continue to rise.
Highlighting its need to break through, Stockton continued, “We need to see some kind of breakout of course from this range for a positive long-term technical catalyst, but Netflix is oversold after having underperformed, so it’s at this proving ground right now on its chart.”
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Netflix trades at 78 times forward earnings and is the most expensive of the FAANG stocks. FAANG is an acronym for the market’s five most popular and best-performing tech stocks: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet’s Google.
Point View Wealth Management’s John Petrides tells CNBC that Netflix’s valuation is not justified, given that Netflix’s subscribers have slowed and more competition in the streaming realm.
“The valuation is just really excessive,” he said. “The market knows that they have a first-mover advantage in streaming, but that’s really discounting very high future cash flows.”
Petrides also Netflix that there’s a downside to Netflix in regards to content because “they don’t have a library” and it instead buys original content.
He continued, “They’re burning through $2 – $3 billion a year in free cash flow. The moment that stops is when I think ironically the valuation comes flying out of the stock.”